Добро пожаловать в интернет-магазин товаров для дома Russiagogreen.ru
На страницах каталога вы сможете подобрать по доступным ценам как вещи для себя, которые необходимы нам каждый день,
так и подарочные экземпляры, которые станут ярким, запоминающимся презентом для друзей и близких.

michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

купить товары для дома не дорого:
Michael  Samonas Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling. A Framework for Long-Term Forecasting michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Michael  Samonas Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling. A Framework for Long-Term Forecasting michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Michael Samonas Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling. A Framework for Long-Term Forecasting

Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.

Michael Samonas Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Michael Samonas Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Michael Samonas Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling

Turn your inspiration into a story with clear, expert guidance Creative Writing Exercises For Dummies is a step-by-step creative writing course designed to hone your craft, regardless of ability. Written by the founder of the Complete Creative Writing Course at London's Groucho Club, this activity-based guide walks you through the process of developing and writing in a wide range of genres including novels, short stories and creative nonfiction. The book includes writing prompts, exercises, mind maps, flow charts and diagrams designed to get your ideas flowing. You'll get expert guidance into character development, plot structure and prose, plus extensive insight into self-editing and polishing your work. Whether you're a new writer with a seed of an idea you would like to develop, or are looking to strengthen your creative writing skills, this book has you covered. Covering every aspect of narrative, from setting initial goals to formatting a manuscript, Creative Writing Exercises For Dummies provides the tools and instruction you need to make your story the best it can be. Learn to spark your imagination and sketch out ideas Create compelling characters and paint a picture with description Develop your plot and structure and maintain continuity Step back from your work and become your own ruthless editor The rise of e-books has opened up the publishing world, even to non-established writers. If you have a story you're dying to tell but aren't sure how, Creative Writing Exercises For Dummies is the clear, concise solution you need.

Danielle Stein Fairhurst Using Excel for Business Analysis. A Guide to Financial Modelling Fundamentals michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Danielle Stein Fairhurst Using Excel for Business Analysis. A Guide to Financial Modelling Fundamentals michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Danielle Stein Fairhurst Using Excel for Business Analysis. A Guide to Financial Modelling Fundamentals

Utilise Excel 2013 capabilities to build effective financial models Using Excel for Business Analysis, Revised Edition provides practical guidance for anyone looking to build financial models. Whether for business proposals, opportunity evaluation, financial reports, or any other business finance application, this book shows you how to design, create, and test your model, then present your results effectively using Excel 2013. The book opens with a general guide to financial modelling, with each subsequent chapter building skill upon skill until you have a real, working model of your own. Financial tools, features, and functions are covered in detail from a practical perspective, and put in context with application to real-world examples. Each chapter focuses on a different aspect of Excel modelling, including step-by-step instructions that walk you through each feature, and the companion website provides live model worksheets that give you the real hands-on practice you need to start doing your job faster, more efficiently, and with fewer errors. Financial modelling is an invaluable business tool, and Excel 2013 is capable of supporting the most common and useful models most businesses need. This book shows you how to dig deeper into Excel's functionality to craft effective financial models and provide important information that informs good decision-making. Learn financial modelling techniques and best practice Master the formulas and functions that bring your model to life Apply stress testing and sensitivity analysis with advanced conditionals Present your results effectively, whether graphically, orally, or written A deceptively powerful application, Excel supports many hundreds of tools, features, and functions; Using Excel for Business Analysis eliminates the irrelevant to focus on those that are most useful to business finance users, with detailed guidance toward utilisation and best practice.

Michael  McMillan Investments. Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Michael  McMillan Investments. Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Michael McMillan Investments. Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis

A comprehensive guide to investment analysis and portfolio management by an expert team from the CFA Institute In a world of specialization, no other profession likely requires such broad, yet in-depth knowledge than that of financial analyst. Financial analysts must not only possess a broad understanding of the financial markets-including structure, organization, efficiency, portfolio management, risk and return, and planning and construction-but they must also have a strong sense of how to evaluate industries and companies prior to engaging in an analysis of a specific stock. Investments: Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis provides the broad-based knowledge professionals and students of the markets need to manage money and maximize return. The book Details market structure and functions, market anomalies, secondary market basics, and regulation Describes investment assets and asset classes, types of positions and orders, as well as forecasting methodologies Discusses return and risk characteristics, portfolio diversification and management, the basics of both technical analysis and major technical indicators, and much more A companion Workbook, which includes learning outcomes, summary overviews, and problems and solutions sections is available and sold separately Investments provides readers unparalleled access to the best in professional quality information on investment analysis and portfolio management.

Michael  Gilliland Business Forecasting. Practical Problems and Solutions michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Michael  Gilliland Business Forecasting. Practical Problems and Solutions michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Michael Gilliland Business Forecasting. Practical Problems and Solutions

A comprehensive collection of the field's most provocative, influential new work Business Forecasting compiles some of the field's important and influential literature into a single, comprehensive reference for forecast modeling and process improvement. It is packed with provocative ideas from forecasting researchers and practitioners, on topics including accuracy metrics, benchmarking, modeling of problem data, and overcoming dysfunctional behaviors. Its coverage includes often-overlooked issues at the forefront of research, such as uncertainty, randomness, and forecastability, as well as emerging areas like data mining for forecasting. The articles present critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief introductory chapters, the book provides practitioners with a comprehensive examination of the current state of the business forecasting field. Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the 'forecastability' of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides a wealth of ideas for improving all aspects of the process, including the avoidance of wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy. Analyzes the most prominent issues in business forecasting Investigates emerging approaches and new methods of analysis Combines forecasts to improve accuracy Utilizes Forecast Value Added to identify process inefficiency The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that can enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert's-eye view of the field's latest developments to help you achieve your desired business outcomes.

David  Hampton Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis using MATLAB michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling David  Hampton Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis using MATLAB michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

David Hampton Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis using MATLAB

The second book in Darbyshire and Hampton’s Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis series, Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis Using MATLAB® takes advantage of the huge library of built-in functions and suite of financial and analytic packages available to MATLAB®. This allows for a more detailed analysis of some of the more computationally intensive and advanced topics, such as hedge fund classification, performance measurement and mean-variance optimisation. Darbyshire and Hampton’s first book in the series, Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis Using Excel & and VBA, is seen as a valuable supplementary text to this book. Starting with an overview of the hedge fund industry the book then looks at a variety of commercially available hedge fund data sources. After covering key statistical techniques and methods, the book discusses mean-variance optimisation, hedge fund classification and performance with an emphasis on risk-adjusted return metrics. Finally, common hedge fund market risk management techniques, such as traditional Value-at-Risk methods, modified extensions and expected shortfall are covered. The book’s dedicated website, www.darbyshirehampton.com provides free downloads of all the data and MATLAB® source code, as well as other useful resources. Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis Using MATLAB® serves as a definitive introductory guide to hedge fund modelling and analysis and will provide investors, industry practitioners and students alike with a useful range of tools and techniques for analysing and estimating alpha and beta sources of return, performing manager ranking and market risk management.

Timothy  Jury Cash Flow Analysis and Forecasting. The Definitive Guide to Understanding and Using Published Cash Flow Data michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Timothy  Jury Cash Flow Analysis and Forecasting. The Definitive Guide to Understanding and Using Published Cash Flow Data michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Timothy Jury Cash Flow Analysis and Forecasting. The Definitive Guide to Understanding and Using Published Cash Flow Data

This book is the definitive guide to cash flow statement analysis and forecasting. It takes the reader from an introduction about how cash flows move within a business, through to a detailed review of the contents of a cash flow statement. This is followed by detailed guidance on how to restate cash flows into a template format. The book shows how to use the template to analyse the data from start up, growth, mature and declining companies, and those using US GAAP and IAS reporting. The book includes real world examples from such companies as Black and Decker (US), Fiat (Italy) and Tesco (UK). A section on cash flow forecasting includes full coverage of spreadsheet risk and good practice. Complete with chapters of particular interest to those involved in credit markets as lenders or counter-parties, those running businesses and those in equity investing, this book is the definitive guide to understanding and interpreting cash flow data.

Michael  Gilliland The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Michael  Gilliland The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Michael Gilliland The Business Forecasting Deal. Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions

Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance. Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.

Michael  Rees Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice. Using Excel, VBA and @RISK michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Michael  Rees Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice. Using Excel, VBA and @RISK michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Michael Rees Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice. Using Excel, VBA and @RISK

The complete guide to the principles and practice of risk quantification for business applications. The assessment and quantification of risk provide an indispensable part of robust decision-making; to be effective, many professionals need a firm grasp of both the fundamental concepts and of the tools of the trade. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in–depth, and practical guide that aims to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. Key content areas include: Detailed descriptions of risk assessment processes, their objectives and uses, possible approaches to risk quantification, and their associated decision-benefits and organisational challenges. Principles and techniques in the design of risk models, including the similarities and differences with traditional financial models, and the enhancements that risk modelling can provide. In depth coverage of the principles and concepts in simulation methods, the statistical measurement of risk, the use and selection of probability distributions, the creation of dependency relationships, the alignment of risk modelling activities with general risk assessment processes, and a range of Excel modelling techniques. The implementation of simulation techniques using both Excel/VBA macros and the @RISK Excel add-in. Each platform may be appropriate depending on the context, whereas the core modelling concepts and risk assessment contexts are largely the same in each case. Some additional features and key benefits of using @RISK are also covered. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice reflects the author′s many years in training and consultancy in these areas. It provides clear and complete guidance, enhanced with an expert perspective. It uses approximately one hundred practical and real-life models to demonstrate all key concepts and techniques; these are accessible on the companion website.

David  Hampton Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis. An Object Oriented Approach Using C++ michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling David  Hampton Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis. An Object Oriented Approach Using C++ michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

David Hampton Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis. An Object Oriented Approach Using C++

Use powerful C++ algorithms and Object Oriented Programming (OOP) to aid in hedge fund decision making Low interest rates, overcrowded markets and greater regulatory oversight are just some of the many reasons it is close to impossible for hedge funds to draw competitive returns. The solution for many hedge fund managers, quantitative investment analysts and risk managers is to adopt new technologies, platforms and programming languages to better manage their risks and maximise the benefits of their return profiles. Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis is a full course in the latest analytic strategies for hedge fund investing, complete with a one-of-a-kind primer on both C++ and object oriented programming (OOP). Covering both basic and risk-adjusted performance measures, this practitioner's guide enables you to manage risk easily and make the most of key statistics with simple and advanced analysis techniques. This highly anticipated third book in the widely used Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis series is the only guide available for applying the powerful C++ language to revolutionise hedge fund trading. Even if you've never worked with code before, the focused overview of C++ gives you everything you need to navigate the technical aspects of object oriented programming, which enables you to build sophisticated analysis programs from small units of reusable code. This book is your breakthrough introduction to winning with hedge funds in the new reality of trading. Jumpstart your new approach to beating the markets with: All the guidance and hands-on support you need to use quantitative strategies to optimise hedge fund decision-making. Illustrative modelling exercises and worked-out problems demonstrating what to expect when assessing risk and return factors in the real world. A companion website offering additional C++ programs, algorithms and data to download. Make reading Hedge Fund Modelling and Analysis your new routine and gain all the insight and relevant information you need to beat the markets.

Michael  McMillan Investments Workbook. Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Michael  McMillan Investments Workbook. Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Michael McMillan Investments Workbook. Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis

Companion workbook to the CFA Institute's Investments: Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis Workbook In a world of specialization, no other profession likely requires such broad, yet in-depth knowledge than that of financial analyst. Investments: Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis provides the broad-based knowledge professionals and students of the markets need to manage money and maximize return. This companion Workbook, also edited by experts from the CFA Institute, allows busy professionals to gain a stronger understanding of core investment topics. The Workbook Includes learning outcomes, summaries, and problems and solutions sections for each chapter in the main book Blends theory and practice Provides access to the highest quality information on investment analysis and portfolio management With Investments: Analysis and Portfolio Management Workbook, busy professionals can reinforce what they've learned in reading Investments, while doing so at their own pace.

Ioannis  Akkizidis Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit. Integration, Profitability, and Risk Management michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Ioannis  Akkizidis Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit. Integration, Profitability, and Risk Management michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Ioannis Akkizidis Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit. Integration, Profitability, and Risk Management

The time for financial technology innovation is now Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit clearly explains why financial credit institutions need to further innovate within the financial technology arena. Through this text, you access a framework for applying innovative strategies in credit services. Provided and supported by financial institutions and entrepreneurs, the information in this engaging book encompasses printed guidance and digital ancillaries. Peer-to-peer lenders are steadily growing within the financial market. Integrating peer-to-peer lending into established credit institutions could strengthen the financial sector as a whole, and could lead to the incorporation of stronger risk and profitability management strategies. Explain (or Explore) approaches and challenges in financial analysis applied to credit risk and profitability Explore additional information provided via digital ancillaries, which will further support your understanding and application of key concepts Navigate the information organised into three subject areas: describing a new business model, knowledge integration, and proposing a new model for the Hybrid Financial Sector Understand how the rise of fintech fits into context within the current financial system Follow discussion of the current status quo and role of innovation in the financial industry, and consider the financial technology innovation landscape from the perspective of an entrepreneur Marketplace Lending, Financial Analysis, and the Future of Credit is a critical text that bridges the gap in understanding between financial technology entrepreneurs and credit institutions.

Larry  Pasavento A Traders Guide to Financial Astrology. Forecasting Market Cycles Using Planetary and Lunar Movements michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Larry  Pasavento A Traders Guide to Financial Astrology. Forecasting Market Cycles Using Planetary and Lunar Movements michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Larry Pasavento A Traders Guide to Financial Astrology. Forecasting Market Cycles Using Planetary and Lunar Movements

Look to the stars for a whole new approach to market cycle forecasting A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology is the definitive guide to trading market cycles based on astrological data. Written by a highly-respected technical analyst, this book makes the connection between the movements of planets and the volatility of the market. Readers can draw upon one hundred years of historical data as they learn how to spot correlations from the past, and refer to planetary and lunar data for the next five years as they shape their own strategy. The book covers the principles of astrological forecasting as applied to the financial markets, explaining what to watch for and how to interpret planetary and lunar activity, plus expert insight on everyday practical application. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta determined that the U.S. stock markets tend to be negatively affected by geomagnetic storms, and the Royal Bank of Scotland demonstrated that a trading system based on the phases of the moon would have outperformed the market. A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology shows traders how to tap into the planetary forces that influence market activity. Readers will: Learn how planetary and lunar movements relate to the financial markets Draw upon 100 years of historic correlations and five years of forecast data Forecast long-term and short-term activity based on planetary relationships and lunar movement Enter the markets at key turning points, using price patterns and other tools When integrated with technical trading patterns, astrology can be an effective way of shifting perspective and approaching the market differently. For traders who have always wanted to know what to do when Mercury is in retrograde or the moon is new, A Trader's Guide to Financial Astrology provides information and insight from a leading market educator.

Cynthia Kase A. Kase on Technical Analysis Workbook. Trading and Forecasting michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Cynthia Kase A. Kase on Technical Analysis Workbook. Trading and Forecasting michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Cynthia Kase A. Kase on Technical Analysis Workbook. Trading and Forecasting

Learn all you need to know about trading and forecasting with technical analysis Kase on Technical Analysis is the ultimate guide to forecasting and trading technically, a comprehensive «all you need to know» review of the topics. Award-winning instructor, Cynthia A. Kase, CMT1, MFTA2, engineer, veteran energy trader, and one of the world's preeminent market technicians, captures her 30 plus years of experience in thirteen half-hour sessions, for more than six in-depth hours on technical analysis essentials. Viewers will develop a better understanding of charting and technical indicators, and get an inside look at cutting edge material based on Kase's own unique indicators and innovative approaches to trading and forecasting. The video describes key techniques for interpreting market behavior and developing a technical approach to trading. The workbook provides practice exercises that reinforce the concepts learned as Kase guides viewers through the various methodologies and their real-life applications to successful market interactions. Technical analysis is based on the premise that the behavior of a market reveals all that is known about it. Price action, volatility and rates of price changes may be harnessed by Kase's techniques to forecast future prices, identify low risk, high reward trading opportunities, and to cut losses while letting profits run. Kase on Technical Analysis shows how it's done, providing clear and wide-ranging instruction and expert insight that helps viewers to: Build a foundational understanding of charting and technical indicators, including an introduction to latest techniques Learn the most important technical methods for interpreting and analyzing market behavior Effectively apply technical analysis to trading strategy, risk management and market forecasting Formulate entry and exit strategies by using pattern recognition and properly applying technical indicators Technical analysis is a core discipline used by successful traders to assess market conditions and time trades. This package covers the aspects of technical analysis needed for intelligent interaction with the markets, from theory to practice, with concrete guidance toward real-world application. For traders wanting to «come up to speed» on technical analysis, for those wanting a refresher on the topic, as well as for seasoned traders looking for new ideas, Kase on Technical Analysis provides deep insight from a global authority. 1 Chartered Market Technician awarded by the Market Technicians Association 2 Master of Financial Technical Analysis awarded by the International Federation of Technical Analysts

Frank Fabozzi J. Analysis of Financial Statements michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling Frank Fabozzi J. Analysis of Financial Statements michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

Frank Fabozzi J. Analysis of Financial Statements

The fully update Third Edition of the most trusted book on financial statement analysis Recent financial events have taught us to take a more critical look at the financial disclosures provides by companies. In the Third Edition of Analysis of Financial Statements, Pamela Peterson-Drake and Frank Fabozzi once again team up to provide a practical guide to understanding and interpreting financial statements. Written to reflect current market conditions, this reliable resource will help analysts and investors use these disclosures to assess a company's financial health and risks. Throughout Analysis of Financial Statements, Third Edition, the authors demonstrate the nuts and bolts of financial analysis by applying the techniques to actual companies. Along the way, they tackle the changing complexities in the area of financial statement analysis and provide an up-to-date perspective of new acts of legislation and events that have shaped the field. Addresses changes to U.S. and international accounting standards, as well as innovations in the areas of credit risk models and factor models Includes examples, guidance, and an incorporation of information pertaining to recent events in the accounting/analysis community Covers issues of transparency, cash flow, income reporting, and much more Whether evaluating a company's financial information or figuring valuation for M&A's, analyzing financial statements is essential for both professional investors and corporate finance executives. The Third Edition of Analysis of Financial Statements contains valuable insights that can help you excel at this endeavor.

James  Chen Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling James  Chen Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets michael samonas financial forecasting analysis and modelling

James Chen Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets

Comprehensive, accessible guide to technical analysis and market trading strategies Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets is an all-encompassing handbook on navigating the financial markets successfully using technical analysis. Clearly written, easy-to-understand, and straightforward, this guide focuses on the key information needed by traders and investors to take on any financial market effectively. Easy-to-use, at-your-fingertips information on using technical analysis to trade all major financial markets Explains how to navigate the markets successfully, including the top techniques for entries, exits, and risk management Straightforward descriptions of proven technical trading methods and strategies Filled with technical analysis insights, charts, and examples With financial markets in «roller coaster» mode, technical analysis offers a unique advantage for managing risk and finding high-probability trading opportunities. Packed with insightful tips and guidance, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets provides proven trading strategies from one of today's top technical strategists.

Страницы: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15